Supercomputer makes Champions League prediction as ‘18%’ swing gives Liverpool hope

What the data says about Liverpool’s Champions League prospects as the Reds are hoping for a late slide from Newcastle or Manchester United in the top four contest. 

Liverpool beat Leicester City 3-0 on Monday night to keep alive hopes of qualifying for the Champions League.

A brace from Curtis Jones in the first half and a late free-kick from Trent Alexander-Arnold secured the three points for Jürgen Klopp’s side.

The Reds are now guaranteed to finish no lower than sixth, meaning they will at least play in the Europa League next season.

But their eyes will still be on potential Champions League qualification, having reduced the gap to Newcastle and Manchester United to just one point. Both teams have one more game to play, but there is still hope for a dramatic turnaround in Liverpool’s favour.

Ahead of Monday’s game at King Power, data gurus FiveThirtyEight put the Reds’ odds at 25%, but after the win that number rose to 37%.Third-placed Newcastle and fourth-placed Manchester United, meanwhile, both sit at 81 per cent, falling six and five points respectively. There has, then, been an 18 per cent swing in Liverpool’s direction after a relatively straightforward victory.

Liverpool.com says: The hurdle for Newcastle to secure a place in the top four could be lower as they have a better goal difference than Liverpool, while Manchester United’s is significantly worse.

However, it’s even more likely that the Magpies will be the team to falter in the final weeks of the season. On Thursday, Eddie Howe’s men host a Brighton side who have just beaten former title contenders Arsenal at the Emirates before facing a relegation-threatened Leicester side who will be playing as desperately as ever. Then it’s off to Stamford Bridge to take on Chelsea’s most expensive side in the league.

Manchester United are also due to face Chelsea, but that match will be played at home, as will last day’s clash against Fulham. A trip to the already safe zone this weekend doesn’t seem particularly daunting, so the Red Devils should ultimately do well.

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Liverpool final fixtures after Newcastle win over Brighton leaves Champions League path clear for the Reds

Liverpool still have a chance of qualifying for next season’s Champions League ahead of the final few games, but their hopes have been dashed by Newcastle.

Liverpool’s path to next season’s Champions League qualification became a little clearer after Newcastle United’s meeting with Brighton on Thursday.

The Reds are just a point clear of the Premier League’s top four, although with Newcastle and Manchester United one game down, Jürgen Klopp’s side needed one or both to drop points in their remaining two games.

Heading into the weekend against an impressive Brighton side, Thursday looked to offer one of the best chances for one of those Newcastle oversights.

Eddie Howe’s side made no mistakes, however, with a Deniz Undav own goal setting them up before Dan Burn’s header made it 2–0. Undav halved the deficit after the break, but Callum Wilson and Bruno Guimarães scored late on to leave the Magpies poised to secure a top-four finish.

Like Liverpool, Newcastle now have just two games left, while Manchester United have three more to go.

Liverpool’s remaining fixtures — Aston Villa (H), Southampton (A).

Liverpool’s remaining fixtures — Aston Villa (H), Southampton (A).

Manchester United’s remaining fixtures — Bournemouth (A), Chelsea (H), Fulham (H).

Newcastle’s remaining fixtures — Leicester City (H), Chelsea (A).

If they are to stand any chance of finishing in the top four, Liverpool will of course need to win both of their remaining games. Their final two fixtures are favorable in that respect, although a tough game at home to Aston Villa has been made a little harder by the news that Klopp will be banned from the touchline.

Even with victories in those two games though, the top four will still be firmly in Newcastle and Manchester United’s grasps.

Having seen off Brighton, Newcastle can secure their place in the Champions League with victory over Leicester on Monday. Given what Liverpool faced when they came up against the Foxes, you’d have to think the Magpies have their spot at Europe’s top table all but booked already.

That leaves Manchester United as the Reds’ only realistic hope of catching. Both sides play at the same time on Saturday, so there might be a few Liverpool fans keeping one eye on the action at Bournemouth while at Anfield.

Having secured their safety, you wonder how big a threat Gary O’Neil’s side will pose to United, and with two home games to end the season, the fixture list does look to be kind for Erik ten Hag’s team.

That doesn’t necessarily mean it’s over for Liverpool’s top-four hopes. United have looked a little shaky in recent weeks, and with an FA Cup final on the horizon, players’ minds might just be drifting towards Wembley.

As it is though, heading into the weekend, Liverpool’s chances of qualifying for next season’s Champions League look as though they may have now ended. It all comes down to whether Manchester United can hold its nerve.