The New York Yankees have rebounded from a poor 2023 season and are now leading the American League East. Since Aaron Judge’s arrival in 2017, the playoffs have been a letdown for New York. The 2024 Yankees are on the verge of defeating the Orioles, focussing fans’ attention on what could go wrong in the postseason.
The Yankees’ catastrophe issue is choking out the American League East. Fangraphs estimates that they have an 88.4% chance of winning the division. This means they still have the ability to give it away. The Baltimore Orioles will visit the Bronx for a three-game series beginning September 24.
Assuming the Yankees win the AL East, the Astros face calamity. While it is improbable that they will make it through the American League playoffs without seeing Houston, they should avoid them for as long as possible. The new playoff system provides a way to dodge them until the fourth ALCS encounter.
Yankees must clinch one seed to stay away from Astros
The loss to the Houston Astros marked the Aaron Judge era. Their stunning 2017 season ended with a Game 7 loss in the American League Championship Series. After winning 103 games in 2019, they were eliminated in six games by a Jose Altuve walk-off home run. A precipitous slide in 2022 culminated in a humiliating whitewash, which led to Houston’s second championship.
The Astros struggled at the start of the 2024 season, beginning with a sweep by the Yankees. They were 14-25 through May 11, just two games ahead of the historically bad White Sox for worst in the AL. Since then, they have been the top club in the AL by four games, with a 67-44 record.
Their poor start has basically eliminated them from the bye. According to Fangraphs, only the top two teams advance to the ALDS, and the Astros have a 6.7% probability of doing so. That means they will host the third Wild Card club and then face the second seed in the ALDS.
To avoid a five-game series against the Astros, the Yankees must secure the number one seed. While it may bring back negative memories, their pitching depth gives them a much better chance of winning a longer series. If the club advances from the ALDS, it will appear that they had a superior season. The Yankees gain a half-game lead for the top spot over the Guardians.
